31 March 2021
Three examples of what Peter is going to explore in this session.
- You’ve tested positive for a rare disease, via a test that is 99% accurate.
How likely is it that you have the disease?
- I have two, and only two, children, the eldest is a girl.
What are the chances that both my children are girls?
- Every Monday, for the past 10 weeks. I send you a stock tip. I’ve been correct all ten times. I send you another tip on the 11th week. You have $100k to invest. Do you invest in my 11th tip?
On average, people do not answer any of these questions correctly.
This discussion is complicated by the fact that two different types of problems are at play here:
- The first is that we—that is, human beings in general—are consistently atrocious at solving a certain type of problem.
- The other is that the information we often do not have—and often do not even realize we’re missing—is overwhelmingly more important than the information we think we have in hand.
While Peter would love to offer a fool-proof way to avoid—or even how to be more aware of—when these two ‘weaknesses’ are in play, the most he’ll attempt to do is introduce the problem and demonstrate, with examples, how complicated decision making/problem solving can be. Because it is difficult for all of us, even for experts with advanced degrees in the fields discussed.
If you think there is value in knowing where our thought processes are less than perfect, and exploring ways to remove those imperfections, this is a webinar you will want to attend. Join Peter as he shines laser beams through the holes in our thinking caps.
As always, spread the word to those who might be interested in this webinar. You’re welcome to point entire associations, companies and small countries to these links. You would be doing us a favour if you did pass this on.
This webinar series is a de Jager & Co Limited (www.technobility.com) and Interthink Consulting (www.interthink.ca) production.
Join us on 31 March 2021: